While the price of Bitcoin surpassed its all-time high of $69,000 at the very start of the week, the altcoin season has not yet started while BTC’s dominance is progressing. When the altcoin season is full and complete, how can we know which ones can or cannot go back to their respective ATH?
Price of an altcoin and market capitalization, the key is here
For the first time in its young history, the price of Bitcoin reached its all-time high several weeks before the BTC halving. The next mining premium reduction will take place around April 15, and in the past, BTC accelerated upward towards its ATH in the weeks following the halving.
The price of Bitcoin is therefore ahead of its usual cycle and the reason for this advance is known to everyone: spot bitcoin ETFs which continue to record daily inflow records. BlackRock now holds over 200,000 Bitcoins, that’s huge and it’s only the beginning.
This ETF parameter will also have the consequence of delaying the altcoin season, by further extending the upward trend of BTC dominance for a few more weeks. But we are already in a mini alt season, with many tokens having validated their long-term bullish reversal on a technical level.
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So now is the time to build up a bag of cryptos to ensure you are on the train when the altcoin season starts.
Then, how do we know which ones can or cannot join their respective ATH? You must clearly distinguish the price of a token from its market capitalization (market cap = number of tokens in circulation * price of the token). If the supply of an altcoin has increased significantly compared to the previous bull run, then it will be less likely that the token will reach its ATH.
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In order to compare what is comparable on a technical level, you therefore ideally need a fairly close supply of tokens between the bull cycle of 2021 and that of 2024. The best option is therefore to carry out an analysis on the market cap of each token.
Chart which represents the weekly Japanese candles of the SUSHI/USDT token with its market cap on the y-axis on the left
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Bitcoin, the technical challenge of preserving the ex-ATH
A quick word on Bitcoin to conclude. The market exceeded its old historical record at the very beginning of the week, the whole graphical challenge is now to preserve new support at $69,000 to further develop the uptrend towards the next theoretical resistances.
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If BTC were to instead re-enter its former ATH, then a significant correction would take place around 60K.
Chart showing weekly (left) and daily (right) BTC/USD Japanese candles
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Vincent Ganne is a market strategist, technical analyst, stock market trainer and speaker on BFM Business. With extensive experience in the field of analysis, he offers a global approach to financial markets. Both from a macroeconomic point of view and from a microeconomic point of view. Vincent Ganne also uses many aspects of graphical analysis in an effort to forecast financial asset trends over the medium and long term.
Vincent Ganne
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Author Bio
A connoisseur of the digital marketplace and a master of the written word, this 30-year-old English expert brings to the table a wealth of knowledge rooted in the sale of digital products and a passion for blogging that resonates with an audience seeking expertise and insight in the online realm.
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