After concluding seven consecutive months of growth, Bitcoin begins a new month in negative territory. Let’s analyze together the future prospects for the BTC price.
Status of Bitcoin (BTC)
While Bitcoin closed a new month in positive, with an increase of more than 16%, the price of BTC begins the month of April with a decrease of -7%. As a reminder, the parent cryptocurrency has attracted buying interest since $60,000. Since then, the price of Bitcoin has stabilized between $68,000 and $71,270. Unfortunately, this Tuesday morning, Bitcoin exited this range from the bottom, thus showing signs of weakness regarding the continuation of the rise started previously. However, we can be reassured by the fact that this decline did not cross the thresholds of the Fibonacci retracements taken into account from $60,000 and $71,270.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $66,500. It is therefore slightly below the value zone located around $67,000. This decline does not call into question the upward trend of Bitcoin, as confirmed by the 50 and 200 day moving averages. However, this affects the bullish momentum of BTC, as shown by oscillators as well as the price of Bitcoin itself. In the longer term, it seems obvious that this phenomenon will not be sustainable.
The current technical analysis was carried out in collaboration with Elie FT, a passionate investor and trader in the cryptocurrency market. Today trainer at Family Tradinga community of thousands of own-account traders active since 2017. You will find Lives, educational content and mutual assistance around the financial markets in a professional and warm atmosphere.
Focus on derivatives (BTCUSDT)
Open interest on BTC/USDT contracts has followed the direction of its price, which has recently been trending downward. The latter has fallen by 10% since April 1. This increase was accompanied by subtle, but mostly long, liquidations, as well as a slight decline in the financing rate. This indicates that interest in Bitcoin perpetual contracts has been growing lately.
The heatmap of liquidations over the past month indicates that BTC/USDT has crossed an intense liquidation zone, located around $68,000. Currently, the price of Bitcoin seems to be stabilizing below this threshold, marking a phase of uncertainty. The most significant liquidation zone is now above the current price, precisely around $72,000. If the market approaches this level, we could see a massive triggering of orders, potentially increasing the volatility of the cryptocurrency. This area therefore represents a major point of interest for investors.
Hypotheses for the price of Bitcoin (BTC)
- If the price of Bitcoin manages to stay above $65,000, we could anticipate a bullish continuation up to the $72,000 level. The next resistance to take into account, if the bullish movement continues, would be $74,000 or $75,000 and above. At this point, that would represent an increase of more than 13%.
- If the price of Bitcoin fails to maintain above $65,000, we could envisage support for buying interest in the $63,000 zone. The next level to take into account, if the bearish movement continues, would be more or less around $61,500. At this stage, this would represent a drop close to – 7.5%.
Conclusion
Despite the recent decline in Bitcoin which marked an exit from its range from the bottom, the underlying trend remains bullish, suggesting that the path to recovery is still on track despite current fluctuations. Nevertheless, it will be crucial to carefully observe the price reaction at different key levels to confirm or refute the current assumptions. It is also important to remain vigilant against potential “fake outs” and “market squeezes” in each scenario. Finally, let us remember that these analyzes are based solely on technical criteria and that the price of cryptocurrencies can also evolve quickly depending on other more fundamental factors.
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Family Trading is a community of own-account traders active since 2017 offering Lives, educational content and mutual assistance around the financial markets including that of cryptocurrencies with Elie FT, a passionate investor and trader on the crypto market.
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